The Associated Press called the Kansas Senate race of 3 November 2026 for Democrat Adam Hamilton, who led Roger Marshall 50.9% to 46.1% with about 96% of votes counted; The Guardian and BBC News report Hamilton's win.
History. 7 of 8 cases. The one loss came after the fund had dropped and then rejoined its candidate, which has not happened in Kansas.
Hunch. The fund is pulling out of North Carolina as party polling turns dire, so Kansas is part of a wider retreat that only some of the past cases shared (The Guardian, 2 Oct).
Resolves on the official Kansas Secretary of State results and the Associated Press race call, checked on 4 November 2026: YES if Roger Marshall wins the US Senate seat, NO if another candidate wins. If there is no call by then, the market waits for the state's official canvass. Reuters and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where a party's main Senate fund put new money into a seat the party had kept for years, six weeks or less before the vote, while the Senate majority could change hands on six seats or fewer. We found eight since 2006, from both parties. Three of the eight decisions came from one fund, the Senate Leadership Fund, which is the fund moving money to Kansas now.