Core CPI, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, was 2.6 per cent in August, unchanged from July, in the ONS release of 16 September 2026 (ONS series DKO8, MM23).
The core inflation market resolves on the ONS consumer price inflation release of 16 September 2026, published at 7am, using the CPI 12-month rate excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, series DKO8 in dataset MM23, to one decimal place. Anything above 2.6 per cent resolves YES, an unchanged 2.6 resolves NO, and the first published figure governs even if it is later revised. If the series page is unavailable, the BBC News and Reuters reports of the release settle it.
We found nine such warnings since January 2022. Each time the governor of the Bank of England said UK inflation would rise, or that the risks pointed up, at the press conference after a rate decision or in evidence to the Treasury Committee. For each one we checked the next official inflation figures. Did core inflation, which leaves out energy and food, go up? The last eight are shown here.