Three members voted to raise Bank Rate on 17 September 2026, not four or more. The vote was six to three for a hold.
The vote market resolves on the Monetary Policy Summary and minutes published by the Bank of England at midday on 17 September 2026, counting the members recorded as voting for any increase in Bank Rate. Four or more resolves YES, three or fewer resolves NO, and a vacant seat or an abstention counts against YES. The Guardian and BBC News reports of the decision settle it if the Bank's page is down.
We found nine such warnings since January 2022. Each time the governor of the Bank of England said UK inflation would rise, or that the risks pointed up, at the press conference after a rate decision or in evidence to the Treasury Committee. For each one we checked the next official inflation figures. Did core inflation, which leaves out energy and food, go up? The last eight are shown here.