Annual CPI inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages was 1.3 per cent in August, unchanged from July, in the ONS release of 16 September 2026 (ONS series D7G8, MM23).
The food market resolves on the same ONS release of 16 September, using the annual CPI rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages, series D7G8 in dataset MM23. Anything above 1.3 per cent resolves YES and 1.3 or below resolves NO, on the first published figure. The Guardian and BBC News reports of the release stand in if the series page is unavailable.
We found nine such warnings since January 2022. Each time the governor of the Bank of England said UK inflation would rise, or that the risks pointed up, at the press conference after a rate decision or in evidence to the Treasury Committee. For each one we checked the next official inflation figures. Did core inflation, which leaves out energy and food, go up? The last eight are shown here.