Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market25 Jun 2026

Does the White House set frontier model pre-release rules by 10 Aug 2026?

BinaryResolves 10 Aug 2026
Hunch22%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The White House finalised its frontier-model testing framework behind closed doors and had published no formal document by 10 August (Axios, 3 Aug; New York Times, 4 Aug; Guardian, 7 Aug 2026).

Resolved 10 Aug 2026
How this resolves

The framework market resolves YES only on a published document from the White House, OSTP or ONCD describing a pre-release evaluation process for frontier models; press briefings alone do not count.

The pattern behind it

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None of the five high-profile preview-then-hold AI releases since 2019 reached general availability within six weeks of the preview. The median gap ran roughly four months. This time the hold is imposed from outside — which has no precedent in the sample at all.

None of five big AI previews since 2019 went public within six weeks. Leading AI companies have shown major models early and kept back the full release before, usually by their own choice. In none of the cases we found did a government ask for the hold. The gap between the preview and the full public release is what matters here, and in these cases it was never short.