Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market18 Sep 2026

Does an executive action cite the Graham act by 18 October?

BinaryResolves 18 Oct 2026
History17%
Hunch24%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

On 16 October 2026 President Trump signed the executive order 'Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026', which names the act as its authority and orders new duties on Russian goods under it, though the same order waives them, as the White House text, The Guardian and BBC News show.

Resolved 16 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. None of the twelve laws behind this base carried a hard 30-day command naming people the United States has already blocked under other authorities, which makes a paper compliance step cheaper here than it was in any of them.

How this resolves

The sanctions market resolves on the federal record. It resolves YES if, between 19 September and the end of 18 October 2026, an executive order, an OFAC action published on ofac.treasury.gov or a State Department determination in the Federal Register names the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act as an authority for a new sanction, designation or duty. An action resting only on existing authorities, or a statement of intent, resolves NO. If nothing appears on those sites, reports by the BBC and the Guardian settle it.

The pattern behind it

2 of 12
Two of the last twelve US sanctions laws drew an executive action citing them within 30 days. That is 17 per cent, which sits close to the 15 per cent floor Hunch will publish a market on, and this page says so rather than dressing it up. Both of the two were laws whose implementing order was already written when the president signed, so the fast lane exists but it is narrow. The rest of the record runs 60, 72 and 89 days for ordinary Treasury work, 119 to 183 days for laws that carried their own deadlines, and a tail at 362, 609 and 1,372 days for laws an administration did not want to use. The Belarus Democracy Act of 2004 has never been cited by any action at all.

We looked at US sanctions laws aimed at a named country since 2004. For each one we counted the days from the president's signature to the first government action that named the new law. That could be an executive order, a Treasury listing or a State Department decision. We found twelve such laws. Newest first.