Who will win the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election?
Multiple choiceResolves 30 Jul 2026
Hunch
Bev Craig (Lab)57%
Sian Astley (Reform)31%
Geraldine Coggins (Green)5%
Any other candidate7%
Your forecast
Bev Craig (Lab)
Sian Astley (Reform)
Geraldine Coggins (Green)
Any other candidate
Resolved
Resolved: Bev Craig (Lab)
Bev Craig won the 30 July by-election, declared on 31 July after a second count in which she beat Reform's Sian Astley 66.3-33.7.
Resolved 30 Jul 2026
Why these numbers
Hunch. Editorial scoring note: Only the three mayoral contests form the 3/3 sample. Parliamentary by-elections remain contextual comparisons, not successes or failures in that denominator. All three mayoral contests involved Burnham, limiting applicability without him.
How this resolves
The winner market resolves on the declaration by the Greater Manchester Combined Authority returning officer on or after 30 July 2026.
The pattern behind it
3 of 3
Labour is three for three in Greater Manchester mayoral contests, never below 63%. But the base rate is untested without Burnham on the ballot, and the two most recent by-elections in the North West — Runcorn 2025 and Makerfield 2026 — both put Reform within reach or past the line. Treat the 3/3 with suspicion. That is the honest read.
Editorial scoring note: Only the three mayoral contests form the 3/3 sample. Parliamentary by-elections remain contextual comparisons, not successes or failures in that denominator. All three mayoral contests involved Burnham, limiting applicability without him.
Labour has won all three Greater Manchester mayor races. Each win was big, and each one was Andy Burnham's. We also show two recent by-elections in the North West, Runcorn in 2025 and Makerfield in 2026. They show what can happen to large Labour majorities when few people vote and Reform voters turn out.
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