In the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October 2026 the Conservatives came third ahead of Reform UK, as BBC News, the Guardian and the Independent reported; Camden's full results page could not be read because it blocks automated visits.
Resolves YES if Reform UK's candidate polls more votes than the Conservative candidate in the declared result, and NO if the Conservative is ahead or if either party does not stand. The count declared by Camden governs, with the Electoral Commission's certified result and then the BBC and the Guardian reports as fallbacks.
We looked at UK byelections since 2012 where the leader of a national party stood in person, and checked whether more than 40% of voters turned out. We found six. Four passed 40%, and none passed 51%.