Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market11 Sep 2026

Do Iranian and Gulf officials meet on Hormuz by 26 Sep 2026?

BinaryResolves 26 Sep 2026
Hunch68%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The Iran and GCC meeting on Hormuz set for 14 September 2026 in Salalah was postponed on 13 September with no new date, and Al Jazeera reported no meeting of Iranian officials with officials of two or more GCC states on the strait by 26 September.

Resolved 26 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The meeting market resolves YES if Iranian officials and officials of at least two GCC states are confirmed to have met on the Strait of Hormuz, in person or by video, between 12 and 26 September 2026, by a statement from any participating government or by reports from two of Al Jazeera, Reuters and BBC News.

The pattern behind it

2 of 6
In two of the six Gulf openings to Iran since 2007, an agreement was announced within 30 days: Qatar's mediation in June 2025, where a truce came the same evening, and the Beijing round in March 2023, where a joint statement came in four days. Both had a broker arriving with a text already drafted. The four that failed the test opened with proposals still being exchanged.

We looked for times since 2007 when Gulf Arab states opened direct talks with Iran to settle a live dispute, either as a side in it or as the go-between. We found six. Two led to an agreement announced within 30 days. The other four brought no agreement in that time.