Iran did not declare Hormuz open by the end of 9 October 2026: Al Jazeera's 9 October summary says the Revolutionary Guard struck an LPG carrier on what it called an illegal route south of the strait, and BBC News on 8 October reported Iran still insisting on control of the waterway.
Resolves YES if the Iranian government or the Revolutionary Guard states that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial shipping without Iranian permission, fees or designated routes, by 23:59 BST on 9 October 2026, confirmed by reports from two of Al Jazeera, Reuters and BBC News.
We looked for times since 2007 when Gulf Arab states opened direct talks with Iran to settle a live dispute, either as a side in it or as the go-between. We found six. Two led to an agreement announced within 30 days. The other four brought no agreement in that time.