History. In six of nine times a Budget left a UK tax cut to run out, the government still extended it at least in part before the end. Three times it ended.
Hunch. In its 28 October Budget papers the Treasury wrote that VAT on these installs will go back to 5% from 1 April 2027, while it extended zero VAT on electricity bills.
The extension market resolves on GOV.UK, in HMRC's VAT Notice 708/6 and Treasury papers: YES if by 31 March 2027 the Treasury or HMRC announces that fitting at least some energy-saving products in the UK will carry VAT below 5% after that date, even only for some products or buyers. A rule only for work booked before 1 April, or a grant, loan or other help in place of the rate, is NO, and The Guardian and BBC confirm the result or settle it if GOV.UK does not open.
We looked for cases where a UK Budget or autumn statement let a temporary tax cut run to its end date, 60 days or more away, while cutting spending elsewhere. We found fourteen from 1992 to 2025. We left out five: in three the trade spoke about the end date without warning of a rush, and in two the opposition spoke about it without asking to keep the cut. Four of the nine left were stamp duty cuts for home buyers. (Hansard; GOV.UK; GOV.UK; BBC)