History. In three of nine, the government kept the tax cut at full level or higher for at least 12 more months. Six times it did not.
Hunch. In its 28 October Budget papers the Treasury wrote that VAT on these installs goes back to 5% on 1 April 2027.
Resolves YES if by 31 March 2027 the Treasury or HMRC announces that fitting heat pumps and solar panels in UK homes stays at 0% VAT until at least 31 March 2028, or with no end date, on the same GOV.UK pages. A shorter extension, any rate above 0%, or zero kept for only one of the two is NO, and The Guardian and BBC are the backups.
We looked for cases where a UK Budget or autumn statement let a temporary tax cut run to its end date, 60 days or more away, while cutting spending elsewhere. We found fourteen from 1992 to 2025. We left out five: in three the trade spoke about the end date without warning of a rush, and in two the opposition spoke about it without asking to keep the cut. Four of the nine left were stamp duty cuts for home buyers. (Hansard; GOV.UK; GOV.UK; BBC)