Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market06 Oct 2026

Does Steve Hilton lose California's governor race on 3 Nov?

BinaryResolves 3 Nov 2026
History3 of 5
Hunch95%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Steve Hilton lost California's governor race on 3 November 2026: the Secretary of State semi-official count shows Xavier Becerra on 64.2% to Hilton's 35.8% with 83% of precincts in, and The Guardian reports Becerra as the winner.

Resolved 3 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. 3 of 5. One more candidate won his party vote and then lost the general election.

Hunch. Polls have consistently shown Xavier Becerra with a large lead, in a state with no Republican governor elected since 2004 (The Guardian, 5 Oct).

How this resolves

Resolves YES if the California Secretary of State results show someone other than Steve Hilton elected governor on 3 November 2026, NO if Hilton gets the most votes. The semi-official count settles it before the Statement of Vote on 11 December, with BBC News and The Guardian as the backup.

The pattern behind it

2 of 5
Two of five candidates took the ad down, both within four days of its release. The other three kept it until the vote. Nobody took an ad down after the first week.

We looked for cases where a candidate or party ran a campaign ad that the press called offensive, and members of the candidate's own party condemned it in public. We found five since 1993, in the US, Britain and Canada. They include a TV ad, an online video, online posts and leaflets, and votes for a national parliament, a Senate seat, a party nomination, a city mayor and local councils.