History. 8 of 10. The two smaller losses were 14 seats in 1978 and 9 in 2022.
Hunch. Cook expects Democrats to gain only five to 15 seats, and in 2022 a thin majority like today's kept the loss to nine.
The seats market resolves on the House party divisions for the new Congress that starts on 3 January 2027, published by the House historian and the Clerk of the House: YES if Republicans hold 204 seats or fewer, a loss of 16 or more from 220, and NO if they hold 205 or more. BBC News and The Guardian are the backup if the House pages are not updated.
We looked for cases where the president's party ran the House going into a midterm election and the president's approval was under 50% or not yet measured. We found 16 since 1914 and kept the ten most recent, from 1942 to 2022. The president's party lost seats every time, and in eight of the ten it lost more than 15.