History. 10 of 10. A net loss of three seats ends today's majority, and the party lost nine or more every time. How often it lost the majority, 6 of 10, depended on how many seats it started with, so that figure does not carry over to 220.
Hunch. A net loss of three seats ends the Republican majority, and the president's party lost nine or more in every midterm here.
The majority market resolves on the same House party divisions on 3 January 2027: YES if Democrats hold more seats than Republicans, NO if Republicans hold more, and the market is void if the two parties have the same number. BBC News and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where the president's party ran the House going into a midterm election and the president's approval was under 50% or not yet measured. We found 16 since 1914 and kept the ten most recent, from 1942 to 2022. The president's party lost seats every time, and in eight of the ten it lost more than 15.