What does the Bank of England do to Bank Rate on 30 July?
Multiple choiceResolves 30 Jul 2026
Hunch
Hold at 3.75%68%
Cut to 3.50%21%
Raise to 4.00%11%
Your forecast
Hold at 3.75%
Cut to 3.50%
Raise to 4.00%
Resolved
Resolved: Hold at 3.75%
The MPC voted 6–3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July (Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary).
Resolved 30 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The Bank Rate market resolves on the Monetary Policy Summary published by the Bank of England on 30 July 2026.
The pattern behind it
2 of 4
In two of the last four years, Nationwide's annual growth rate ended the year higher than its June reading; in two it ended lower. The pattern is genuinely split — the deciding variable each time was what happened to mortgage rates in the second half.
Nationwide's own figures for the last four years split evenly. We asked whether faster house price growth in June carried on into the second half of the year, comparing each June's yearly rate with December's. Twice growth was faster by December, and twice it was slower.
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