History. 0 of 6: in no year when the Senate never agreed a House plan with orders for a reconciliation bill did the Senate pass such a bill before the end of that Congress. In 2012 the House bill reached the Senate without its fast-track rules and was never voted on.
Hunch. Senate Budget chair Ron Johnson said in early November that the White House wants another party-line budget bill and that he is ready to take it up.
The Senate market resolves on bill actions at congress.gov: YES if from 10 November to 31 December 2026 the Senate passes a reconciliation bill, its own or one sent by the House, and NO if there is no such vote. The Guardian and CBS News are the backups.
We looked for cases where the US House passed a budget plan that opened the way to a reconciliation bill, with no more than five votes from the other party, and the Senate never agreed to such a plan for that year. We found six such years since 1990: 1998, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2012 and 2013. (Congressional Research Service; Congressional Research Service)