History. No count: the past years do not record the debt limit, so they cannot show whether it would rise.
Hunch. Reuters reported on 5 November that the government is unlikely to hit its borrowing limit until late next year, so nothing forces a vote before January.
The debt limit market resolves on the list of laws of the 119th Congress at congress.gov: YES if from 10 November to 31 December 2026 a law that raises the legal limit on federal borrowing comes into force, by a fast-track bill or a bill both parties vote for. The Guardian and CBS News are the backups.
We looked for cases where the US House passed a budget plan that opened the way to a reconciliation bill, with no more than five votes from the other party, and the Senate never agreed to such a plan for that year. We found six such years since 1990: 1998, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2012 and 2013. (Congressional Research Service; Congressional Research Service)