Hunch. On 29 Oct Deadline said this film is the first choice of more cinemagoers than Wicked, which opened with $112.5M, and level with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice at $111M.
The $105 million market resolves on The Numbers weekend figures for 20 to 22 November 2026: YES if the final three-day takings in North America are $105 million or more, with exactly $105 million counting as YES, and NO if less. Box Office Mojo and Deadline confirm the figure; if it is unclear whether the figures are final, the market waits until both Box Office Mojo and The Numbers show them, and if final figures are not out by 27 November 2026, 11:59 pm ET, another reliable source decides.
We looked for cases where a new film in a series opened after a weaker last film, and Deadline had published a first forecast for its opening weekend about three weeks before. We found ten such films from 2015 to 2025. For each one we compared the first three days in cinemas with the lower end of that first forecast.