Hunch. On 29 Oct Deadline said more cinemagoers name this film their first choice than named Wicked, which opened with $112.5M.
The under $70 million market resolves on Box Office Mojo, which shows actual North American takings on Monday 23 November 2026: YES if the film takes less than $70 million from Friday 20 to Sunday 22 November, Thursday previews included, and NO if it takes $70 million or more. Studio estimates on Sunday do not count, and Deadline and Variety reports settle it if Box Office Mojo shows no figure.
We looked for cases where a new film in a series opened after a weaker last film, and Deadline had published a first forecast for its opening weekend about three weeks before. We found ten such films from 2015 to 2025. For each one we compared the first three days in cinemas with the lower end of that first forecast.