All five seats were filled on 3 November 2026: Akande, Alabrune, Hmoud and Lee in the first round and Phoebe Okowa of Kenya after three rounds, the UN press releases show.
Hunch. Britain and France both bring new candidates to this vote, as the UN list of 1 July shows, which did not happen at any election from 2005 to 2023.
The five-seat market resolves YES if, by the end of the meetings on 3 November New York time, UN press releases name five candidates elected by both the General Assembly and the Security Council, and NO if any seat is still empty after that day. The date does not move, and The Guardian, BBC or Reuters settle it if the UN pages cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where a country with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council put up a new candidate, not a sitting judge, at a regular election to the court. We found four such elections since 2005: Russia in 2005 and 2014, Britain in 2008 and the US in 2023. Each new candidate was elected on the first day of voting.