On 3 November 2026 the UN General Assembly and Security Council both elected François Alabrune of France to the International Court of Justice, UN press releases show.
Hunch. Since 2017 the General Assembly has twice voted out a judge from a permanent Security Council member, and France's new candidate faces eight rivals for five seats.
The Alabrune market resolves YES if UN press releases on the General Assembly and Security Council votes, or the court's own press release, name François Alabrune as elected with a majority in both bodies, and NO if all five seats are filled without him or France withdraws him. If seats are still empty after 3 November and he is still running, it settles on the day of the last round of this election, with The Guardian, BBC or Reuters deciding if the UN pages cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where a country with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council put up a new candidate, not a sitting judge, at a regular election to the court. We found four such elections since 2005: Russia in 2005 and 2014, Britain in 2008 and the US in 2023. Each new candidate was elected on the first day of voting.