In the first General Assembly round on 3 November 2026 Dapo Akande got 129 votes, above the 97 needed, the UN press release GA/12805 shows.
Hunch. In 2023 Russia's sitting judge got only 77 of the 97 General Assembly votes needed in round one, so a permanent Council seat no longer brings those votes by itself.
The round-one market resolves YES if the UN General Assembly press release for 3 November shows Dapo Akande with at least 97 votes, a majority of all 193 members, in the first round, and NO if he has fewer or is withdrawn before the vote. The vote count in that press release settles it, with The Guardian, BBC or Reuters as backup.
We looked for cases where a country with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council put up a new candidate, not a sitting judge, at a regular election to the court. We found four such elections since 2005: Russia in 2005 and 2014, Britain in 2008 and the US in 2023. Each new candidate was elected on the first day of voting.