Will the Immigration and Asylum Bill pass Second Reading on 13 July?
BinaryResolves 13 Jul 2026
History100%
Hunch91%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
Bill passed Second Reading 264-90 (majority 174) in the Commons on 13 Jul 2026, per Hansard division records.
Resolved 13 Jul 2026
How this resolves
Second Reading passage resolves on the division result recorded in Hansard for 13 July 2026; if no division is called, the bill passing on the nod resolves YES.
The pattern behind it
12 of 12
Twelve of twelve major immigration bills since 1999 passed Second Reading. Passage is close to a lock. But on rebellion size the record splits: the same Labour benches produced near-zero dissent on the 2025 border bill and 49 votes against the welfare bill five months later. Which precedent applies depends on the week — and this vote lands in the strangest week in Labour's recent history.
We looked at the major immigration laws passed since 1999. There are twelve, under governments of different parties, and every one got through Second Reading. What changes from bill to bill is how many of the government's own MPs vote against it, and there the recent record is split.
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