How many Labour MPs will vote against the Bill at Second Reading?
Multiple choiceResolves 13 Jul 2026
Hunch
Fewer than 1042%
10 to 2938%
30 or more20%
Your forecast
Fewer than 10
10 to 29
30 or more
Resolved
Resolved: 10 to 29
14 Labour MPs, including McDonnell and Whittome, voted No at Second Reading on 13 Jul 2026; the bill passed 264-90 (Hansard, 13 Jul 2026).
Resolved 13 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The rebellion market counts Labour MPs recorded as voting No in the Hansard division list for the Second Reading vote; tellers and abstentions do not count.
The pattern behind it
12 of 12
Twelve of twelve major immigration bills since 1999 passed Second Reading. Passage is close to a lock. But on rebellion size the record splits: the same Labour benches produced near-zero dissent on the 2025 border bill and 49 votes against the welfare bill five months later. Which precedent applies depends on the week — and this vote lands in the strangest week in Labour's recent history.
We looked at the major immigration laws passed since 1999. There are twelve, under governments of different parties, and every one got through Second Reading. What changes from bill to bill is how many of the government's own MPs vote against it, and there the recent record is split.
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