Will the Immigration and Asylum Bill receive its First Reading by 30 June 2026?
BinaryResolves 30 Jun 2026
Hunch78%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
The bill was introduced in the Commons on 30 June 2026, with First Reading recorded on the UK Parliament bills page and noted the same day by the House of Commons Library.
Resolved 30 Jun 2026
How this resolves
The introduction market resolved on the bill's First Reading, recorded on the UK Parliament bills page on 30 June 2026.
The pattern behind it
12 of 12
Twelve of twelve major immigration bills since 1999 passed Second Reading. Passage is close to a lock. But on rebellion size the record splits: the same Labour benches produced near-zero dissent on the 2025 border bill and 49 votes against the welfare bill five months later. Which precedent applies depends on the week — and this vote lands in the strangest week in Labour's recent history.
We looked at the major immigration laws passed since 1999. There are twelve, under governments of different parties, and every one got through Second Reading. What changes from bill to bill is how many of the government's own MPs vote against it, and there the recent record is split.
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