Hunch. The Budget falls inside this window and the gas price shock gives a reason to act, but the Chancellor has promised to meet the fiscal rules and help with household bills competes for the same money.
The November market resolves on the same test with the window running to the end of 7 November 2026, so a qualifying measure in the Budget of 28 October counts. The Budget red book and gov.uk news are the primary sources, and BBC News and the Financial Times settle it if they cannot be read.
We found eight similar UK shutdowns since 2013. In each, a large factory that uses a lot of energy paused, mothballed or closed, and blamed energy costs. We checked whether the government announced new help with energy costs within 31 days, for that plant, for heavy industry or for all businesses. It did four times. Two of those four were help for every business in 2022, and a plan first promised five months earlier in 2025.