Annual CPI eased to 2.6% in June, down from 2.8% in May and below consensus, the lowest reading since March 2025.
Resolved 22 Jul 2026
How this resolves
CPI markets resolve on the 12-month CPI rate in the ONS Consumer Price Inflation bulletin for June 2026, published 7am on 22 July 2026.
The pattern behind it
1 of 4
Only 1 of 4 modern UK energy-shock retreats was followed by a second inflation wave. The base rate favours the fall holding — but the single exception, 1975, is the episode central bankers are paid to remember, which is why the Bank keeps warning the climb may come.
The UK has had four big energy price shocks in modern times. Each time inflation fell back, and the same question came next as now: does the fall last, or does a second rise build? Usually the fall lasted. The one exception, 1975, was very large.
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