Will transport inflation stay above 6% in the June 2026 data?
BinaryResolves 22 Jul 2026
Hunch71%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: NO
Transport inflation fell to 5.7% in June from 6.8% in May, dropping below the 6% line.
Resolved 22 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The transport market resolves on the annual rate for the CPI transport division in the same ONS bulletin; above 6.0% resolves YES.
The pattern behind it
1 of 4
Only 1 of 4 modern UK energy-shock retreats was followed by a second inflation wave. The base rate favours the fall holding — but the single exception, 1975, is the episode central bankers are paid to remember, which is why the Bank keeps warning the climb may come.
The UK has had four big energy price shocks in modern times. Each time inflation fell back, and the same question came next as now: does the fall last, or does a second rise build? Usually the fall lasted. The one exception, 1975, was very large.
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