History. 5 of 6. In 2022 parliament turned down the first choice for labour minister.
Hunch. The energy committee's inquiry, announced on 5 October, gives parliament a reason to question the first person the president puts forward. Editorial scoring note: The coded outcome is parliamentary approval within three months: delays of 70, 57 and 89 days qualify. Four of six met that outcome. First-nominee approval (5/6) and acting-minister appointment (1/6) are separate outcomes.
The first nominee market resolves on the same pages: YES if the first person put forward as oil minister after Mohsen Paknejad wins the vote of confidence, NO if parliament turns him down. If no first nominee faces a vote by 5 January 2027 the market is void, with BBC News and The Guardian as the backup.
We looked for cases where an Iranian minister resigned in the middle of a scandal at his ministry or open anger at his work, and parliament then had to vote on the next minister. We found six since 2019, under two earlier presidents. Two were education ministers and two were agriculture ministers.