History. 1 of 6. In 2023 the temporary head of the education ministry was approved as minister.
Hunch. The Guardian report of 5 October names no temporary head for the oil ministry yet, so nothing points either way. Editorial scoring note: The coded outcome is parliamentary approval within three months: delays of 70, 57 and 89 days qualify. Four of six met that outcome. First-nominee approval (5/6) and acting-minister appointment (1/6) are separate outcomes.
The temporary head market resolves on the same pages: YES if parliament approves as oil minister the person the president named temporary head of the ministry, NO if it approves someone else. If no oil minister is approved by 5 January 2027 the market is void, with BBC News and The Guardian as the backup.
We looked for cases where an Iranian minister resigned in the middle of a scandal at his ministry or open anger at his work, and parliament then had to vote on the next minister. We found six since 2019, under two earlier presidents. Two were education ministers and two were agriculture ministers.