Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market23 Jun 2026

Will Congress pass a binding limit on Iran operations before August recess?

BinaryResolves 7 Aug 2026
History0 of 4
Hunch9%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No joint resolution or bill with binding limits on Iran operations passed both chambers before the August recess; the Senate's 50-48 war powers resolution carried no force of law.

Resolved 7 Aug 2026
How this resolves

The binding-restriction market resolves YES only if a joint resolution or bill containing legally binding limits on Iran operations (funding restriction or statutory prohibition) passes both chambers and is presented to the president before the August recess, per Congress.gov.

The pattern behind it

0 of 4
0 of 4 modern war-powers confrontations changed anything on the battlefield. This is as one-sided as base rates get — the honest caveat is that none of the four happened four months into an escalating war, in a midterm year, with majorities of both chambers on record against it.

Congress has tried to end wars by resolution since 1973. We looked for votes where Congress told a president to stop a military operation or refused to back it, and asked whether the operation changed. We found four such votes since 1999. In none of them did the fighting stop because of the vote.