Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market06 Oct 2026

Will Ireland's public sector strike on 21 October go ahead?

BinaryResolves 21 Oct 2026
History4 of 4
Hunch84%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The 21 October 2026 public sector strike did not go ahead: the Irish National Teachers' Organisation said on 19 October that the planned second strike had been suspended after government-appointed talks led to negotiations at the Workplace Relations Commission, and Reuters reported on 16 October that the unions suspended the second strike day (headline only, paywall); no BBC or Guardian report of the suspension was found.

Resolved 21 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 4 of 4: in every past strike the second day went ahead, with no formal talks before it.

Hunch. The government says on 30 September that officials are ready to talk without delay, and in 2019 the Labour Court stepped in between two strike days.

How this resolves

The second-strike market resolves on statements by Fórsa, ASTI, INTO or the Department of Public Expenditure, confirmed by BBC News or The Guardian: YES if on 21 October at least one union that called that day goes on strike, and NO if all of them put it off or cancel it. If the 14 October strike does not happen, the market is void.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
Four of four times the second strike day went ahead, and no formal talks began before it. Unions stopped when a state body invited them to talks, 7 to 13 days after the first strike.

We looked for cases where unions of Irish public employees called at least two strike days, or an open-ended strike, over pay, and at least one day went ahead. We found four since 2016: teachers, nurses, hospital scientists and school support staff.