Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market06 Oct 2026

Will the unions accept talks at the WRC or Labour Court by 27 Oct?

BinaryResolves 27 Oct 2026
History4 of 4
Hunch70%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Fórsa said on 16 October 2026 that the unions accepted a process towards formal negotiations at the Workplace Relations Commission, and SIPTU said on 25 October that pay talks were under way there.

Resolved 16 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 4 of 4: each union stopped on the day it accepted an invitation from a state conciliation body, 7 to 13 days after the first strike.

Hunch. Fórsa wants the cost of living settled at the start of any talks, while each past strike ended in a narrower dispute with one or two unions.

How this resolves

The talks market resolves on statements by the Workplace Relations Commission, the Labour Court or the unions, confirmed by BBC News or The Guardian: YES if by the end of 27 October Fórsa, SIPTU, INMO, ASTI, INTO or TUI publicly accepts an invitation from the WRC, the Labour Court, the Teachers Conciliation Council or the government to formal pay talks, and NO if none does. If the 14 October strike does not happen, the market is void.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
Four of four times the second strike day went ahead, and no formal talks began before it. Unions stopped when a state body invited them to talks, 7 to 13 days after the first strike.

We looked for cases where unions of Irish public employees called at least two strike days, or an open-ended strike, over pay, and at least one day went ahead. We found four since 2016: teachers, nurses, hospital scientists and school support staff.