History. 5 of 10. In five of Israel's last ten elections the leader of the biggest party headed a new government within 60 days: 2003, 2006, 2013, 2015 and 2022.
Hunch.
The first-place market resolves on the Knesset's list of governments and prime ministers: YES if, by 26 December 2026, the Knesset approves a new government whose prime minister is the first candidate of the list that won the most seats in the final results of the Central Elections Committee (if two lists tie on seats, the one with more votes). NO if no government is approved by then or someone else leads it; if the Knesset site is unreachable, Reuters and BBC News reports of the confidence vote settle it.
We looked for cases where Israel elected its parliament and no party came close to a majority. That is every election since 2003: in each, the biggest party won fewer than 40 of the 120 seats. For the ten elections from 2003 to 2022 we asked: did the leader of the biggest party head a new government within 60 days of the vote?