History. 6 of 10. Six of the last ten elections produced a government approved by the Knesset within 60 days, in 30 to 58 days. The other four took 76 or 82 days or ended in a new vote.
Hunch.
The new-government market resolves on the Knesset's list of governments: YES if the Knesset votes confidence in a new government, led by anyone, on or before 26 December 2026. NO if no such vote has passed by then, including if the Knesset is dissolved for a new election; Reuters and BBC News reports of the vote are the backup.
We looked for cases where Israel elected its parliament and no party came close to a majority. That is every election since 2003: in each, the biggest party won fewer than 40 of the 120 seats. For the ten elections from 2003 to 2022 we asked: did the leader of the biggest party head a new government within 60 days of the vote?