History. In five of eight yearly budgets with a new tax on the wealthy, the tax became law by 31 December. Three times it did not.
Hunch. On 6 November deputy economy minister Maurizio Leo offered only adjustments and simplifications to the exit tax, and no one in the government has talked about dropping it.
The before-2027 market resolves on the Gazzetta Ufficiale, Italy's official journal: YES if by 31 December 2026 the President signs and the Gazzetta publishes any law with a tax on the unsold gains of people who move their tax home abroad, even with a different rate, starting level or payment terms. It is NO if the budget passes without the tax, or the tax stays only in a plan or in a decree not made law, a court challenge does not change the result, and ANSA and Reuters are the backups.
We looked for cases where a government put a new tax that only wealthy people pay into its yearly budget plan, and parliament had to pass the budget by 31 December. We found eight such budgets, for the years 2012 to 2026, in France, Italy and Spain. Four of them were French, and two were Italian. (Senate of France; Normattiva; Boletín Oficial del Estado)