Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market09 Nov 2026

Will Italy's exit tax law let people moving in the EU delay it all?

BinaryResolves 31 Dec 2026
Hunch31%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. The change la Repubblica says the government is studying is a higher starting level and protection for new residents, not the full EU delay Forza Italia wants.

How this resolves

The EU delay market resolves on the same journal: YES if the law published by 31 December lets a person who moves to another EU country delay the whole tax, with nothing paid at once and no guarantee. It is NO if any part paid at once or any guarantee stays for such moves, or there is no law with the tax by then, and ANSA and Reuters are the backups.

The pattern behind it

5 of 8
In five of eight yearly budgets that brought a new tax on the wealthy, the tax became law by 31 December. Twice the whole budget came in February, and once France's Constitutional Council removed the tax.

We looked for cases where a government put a new tax that only wealthy people pay into its yearly budget plan, and parliament had to pass the budget by 31 December. We found eight such budgets, for the years 2012 to 2026, in France, Italy and Spain. Four of them were French, and two were Italian. (Senate of France; Normattiva; Boletín Oficial del Estado)