The government's Jackdaw Field Development page now shows the project as Determined, with the Secretary of State's decision letter to the developer dated 19 October 2026, and BBC News reported the approval on 21 October 2026.
Hunch. Three things the base of 29 per cent cannot see: the paperwork has been closed since August with nothing further asked of the developer, the Guardian reports a growing expectation of approval within weeks, and in two days the leaders of Scottish Labour and the Liberal Democrats have both said publicly that the field should go ahead.
The Jackdaw market resolves on the department's own project page at gov.uk, which lists the key dates for the field and is updated when a decision is made. It resolves YES if a decision letter to the developer is dated on or before 28 October 2026, whether it agrees to consent or refuses it, because what is being measured is the signature and not the answer. A further request for information, a new public notice or a ministerial statement without a letter does not count. If the page has not been updated, reports of the decision in the Financial Times and on the BBC settle it.
Seven offshore oil and gas fields have a signed decision on record. For each, we counted the days from the end of public consultation to the signed decision letter, using the project pages on gov.uk. Jackdaw's own earlier rounds are left out. Two came within 79 days, and the other five took 265 days or more. The same government department decided every case, and two letters, Murlach and Affleck, were signed on the same day.