History. 1 of 8: only once, in March 2009, did a law like this pass within 36 days of reaching the upper chamber (day 28, before the end of the financial year). The other seven took 50 to 63 days.
Hunch. On 6 November Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested the ruling parties could accept some opposition requests on the payments, which opens a faster road than the long second-vote route of past years.
The 12 December market resolves on the House of Councillors record of the food tax bill: YES if by 12 December 2026, Japan time, the bill is finally passed, by the upper chamber or by a second two-thirds vote in the lower chamber. If the session is extended and there is no law yet, it resolves NO, and Kyodo News and The Japan Times are the backups.
We looked for cases where Japan's lower chamber passed a government bill that the opposition voted against, while the opposition had a majority in the upper chamber and the government had two-thirds of the lower chamber. We found eight such votes, from 2007 to 2009 and in 2013. Some covered several laws decided on the same day. (House of Councillors; National Diet Library)