Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market15 Sep 2026

Is Gabriel registered with a club other than Man Utd by 16 Dec?

BinaryResolves 16 Dec 2026
History100%
Hunch55%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 16 Dec 2026
How this resolves

(adjacent, long). Same rule as the first market with the deadline moved to 23:59 GMT on 16 December 2026: the new club's official site confirmed by BBC Sport or Sky Sports. A Premier League ruling that cancels his United registration without a new club named resolves NO, as does a new agreement with United; silence resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

4 of 7
Four of the seven forced academy exits since 2003 ended with a new registration within 31 days: Elliott, Musiala, Pique and Fabregas, all done with the news or within three weeks. Sancho, Ngumoha and Obi-Martin took 42 to 78 days.

We found seven young players who forced their way out. All were aged 15 to 17 at top academies in England or Spain since 2003, and left against their club's wishes by refusing a deal, sending a notice or walking out of a youth deal. We counted the days until a new club registered them. Four were at a new club within a month of the first news. The three English cases since 2017 took six to eleven weeks.