The headline U-3 unemployment rate printed at 4.1% for July, down from 4.2% in June (BLS).
Resolved 7 Aug 2026
How this resolves
The unemployment rate resolves on the headline U-3 rate as first published.
The pattern behind it
2 of 5
In two of five modern cases, a sub-100,000 payroll month preceded recession within a year. In the other three, hiring rebounded. The pattern is split — the follow-up report has usually been the tiebreaker.
We found five times since 2000 when US hiring fell below 100,000 in a month while the economy was still growing. Twice it was the first sign of a recession within a year. Three times it was noise from strikes, weather or later corrections to the figures, and hiring came back.
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