Do the figures out on 22 September show April to August borrowing above the March forecast?

Three of the last four borrowing overshoots since 2008 were answered with net tax rises or consolidation: Osborne in June 2010, Hunt in November 2022, Reeves in October 2024. The exception, Darling's November 2008 pre-Budget report, came in a full-blown slump and answered with a VAT cut. The window and the full record are the same four cases, because a documented overshoot running into a set-piece event is rare — the numbers usually behave, or the forecast is revised before the event. With July receipts at record levels and the pressure coming from spending and debt interest, 2026 sits with the majority cases rather than with 2008.