Will monthly GDP growth for July 2026 be 0.2 per cent or higher?
BinaryResolves 11 Sep 2026
Hunch35%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
The first published figure was 0.4 per cent (ONS monthly GDP estimate, 11 September 2026).
Resolved 11 Sep 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on the same first-published figure; YES at 0.2 per cent or higher, NO at 0.1 or below. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and Reuters settle it.
The pattern behind it
4 of 8
Four of the last eight rebounds held into the next month: January 2023 (0.2), January 2024 (0.2), February 2025 (0.2) and February 2026 (0.3). Four did not: June 2023 (-0.4), November 2023 (-0.3), August 2024 (0.0) and June 2025 (-0.1). In the full ONS series from February 1997, excluding 2020 and 2021, a rise of 0.3 per cent or more after a flat or falling month has occurred 68 times; the following month grew in 40 of them.
Since 1997 we found 68 months like June. In each, the UK economy grew 0.3 per cent or more straight after a month with no growth or a fall. Then we checked whether the next month grew too, and it did in 40 of them. We left out 2020 and 2021, the pandemic years, when the economy was reopening. The page shows the latest eight.
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