The ONS monthly GDP estimate published at 7am on 11 September 2026 put July growth at 0.4 per cent, after 0.3 per cent in June.
The market resolves on the monthly GDP growth figure for July 2026 as first published in the ONS GDP monthly estimate bulletin at 7am on 11 September 2026, to one decimal place; YES at 0.1 per cent or higher, NO at 0.0 or below. The headline monthly figure governs, not the three-month rate or the index level; revisions do not reopen. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and Reuters reports of the release settle it.
Since 1997 we found 68 months like June. In each, the UK economy grew 0.3 per cent or more straight after a month with no growth or a fall. Then we checked whether the next month grew too, and it did in 40 of them. We left out 2020 and 2021, the pandemic years, when the economy was reopening. The page shows the latest eight.