Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Sep 2026

Does Kalshi stop sports contracts in Ohio or Tennessee by 30 Nov?

BinaryResolves 30 Nov 2026
History38%
Hunch38%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 30 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. 3 of 8. Crypto.com and Robinhood in Nevada in 2025 agreed to limit contracts the day they lost, and DraftKings and FanDuel left Nevada the day of the order in 2015. Kalshi in Nevada in 2025, Kalshi in Massachusetts and the two fantasy firms in New York kept going. Two more cases stopped later, but the day is not confirmed, so they count as not stopping in time.

Hunch. In Ohio Kalshi has had no court protection since 24 April 2026 and no opened source says it has stopped there, while in Tennessee the ruling cannot take effect before 16 October.

How this resolves

YES if between 28 September and 30 November 2026 Kalshi stops offering sports event contracts to users in Ohio or in Tennessee, or stops offering new ones there, as shown by a Kalshi statement, a court filing or order, a statement of the Ohio Casino Control Commission or the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council, or a report in a listed source. A stop in either state is enough. Blocking only some users or some sports does not count. NO otherwise. Base: 3 of 8 cases stopped within 66 days of the ruling or order; two cases (Kalshi in Nevada, March 2026; two other platforms in Nevada, January to February 2026) stopped at some point but no listed or official source gives the day, so they count as not stopping in time.

The pattern behind it

5 of 6
In 5 of 6 similar cases, the Supreme Court's first step was to ask the government for advice. In 2009 it waited one meeting for a related request.

We looked for cases where three or more federal appeals courts disagreed over whether a federal law overrides state law, and one side asked the Supreme Court to hear the case. We found six since 2003. In all six the Court asked the US government for its view before deciding. The judges decide which cases to hear at private meetings. In five of the six they asked at the first meeting where they looked at the case, once both sides had sent in their papers. In the sixth they waited one meeting so that a second, related request could be decided with it. The Supreme Court is the one decider in all six.