Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market29 Aug 2026

Does the Home Office formally answer its drug advisers' January ketamine advice by 29 Nov?

BinaryResolves 29 Nov 2026
Hunch40%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 29 Nov 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on a Home Office publication on gov.uk, or a ministerial statement in Hansard, that formally answers the ACMD's 28 January 2026 recommendations, whether it accepts Class B or rejects it, by 23:59 GMT on 29 November 2026; an enforcement release or an answer to a written question does not count. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian settle it.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
Four of the last six times the ACMD advised against tighter control, ministers overruled it: cannabis in 2008, MDMA in 2009, khat in 2013 and nitrous oxide in 2023. The two exceptions, cannabis in 2002 and 2006, were both cases in which the Home Secretary had asked the question and accepted the answer. All four overrides moved in the direction of more control, which is the direction the pressure now points on ketamine. Six cases is the full record since 2002 and the interval around it is wide.

We found six cases since 2002 like the ketamine advice. In each, the ACMD advised the Home Secretary against a stricter class for a drug, by asking for no change, a lower class or no control at all, and ministers then decided. We asked whether the Home Secretary chose stricter control than the advisers wanted. Advice asking for stricter control is left out, because there both sides already agree. So are changes to the separate rules for medical use.