Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market30 Sep 2026

Will the leasehold bill reach Parliament by 17 December?

BinaryResolves 17 Dec 2026
History83%
Hunch76%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 17 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 5 of 6 new leaders brought a delayed reform by the date they named. The sixth, Canada 2005, came one day late.

Hunch. The ground rent cap already stalled once during this summer's change of prime minister, and Rayner has now added a regulator and fee caps that still need writing or consulting on (BBC News, 29 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

Resolves on 18 December 2026 at 10:00 on bills.parliament.uk, backed by bills-api.parliament.uk Stages: YES if a government bill on leasehold or commonhold, under any title, had its first reading in the Commons or the Lords on or before 17 December 2026. A draft bill or consultation without a first reading, or a bill from an individual member, resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

5 of 6
In 5 of 6 cases the new leader's bill came by the date they named. The sixth, Canada in 2005, came one day after the end of January.

We looked for cases where a new head of government took over from a leader who had promised a reform and put it off, and then named a date for bringing it to parliament. In each case only the government could bring the bill. We found six from 2004 to 2022, in Britain, Canada, Australia and Japan.