Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market11 Sep 2026

Does net mortgage borrowing top £5bn in the Bank's August data?

BinaryResolves 29 Sep 2026
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The Bank of England's Money and Credit release for August, published on 29 September 2026, put net mortgage borrowing at £4.4bn, up from £4.1bn in July but below £5bn.

Resolved 29 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The net borrowing market resolves on the same Money and Credit release of 29 September 2026; YES if net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals in August 2026 is above £5.0 billion as first published. Baseline at publication: £4.3 billion in July, against a six-month average of £5.3 billion. If the Bank has not published by 23:59 BST on 30 September 2026, the Financial Times and BBC News reports settle it.

The pattern behind it

5 of 6
Five of the six loosenings of UK mortgage rules since 2013 were followed by higher approvals inside three months. The exception, the 2021 guarantee scheme, opened into a stamp duty holiday. July 2025 held a quarter, then reversed.

We found six changes since 2013 that made borrowing easier. Each came from the UK government or a UK regulator and let buyers borrow with a smaller deposit or a bigger multiple of their income. For each change we compared mortgage approvals in the three months after it with the three months before. Changes that made borrowing harder are left out.