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Market11 Sep 2026

Is Nationwide's annual house price growth above 1.6% in September?

BinaryResolves 1 Oct 2026
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Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Nationwide's index published on 1 October 2026 shows annual house price growth halved to 0.8% in September, down from 1.6% in August.

Resolved 1 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The house price market resolves on Nationwide's house price index for September 2026, expected on nationwide.co.uk on 1 October 2026; YES if the annual rate of change is above 1.6 per cent, August's figure, as first published. If Nationwide has not published by 23:59 BST on 5 October 2026, the Guardian and BBC News reports of the September index settle it.

The pattern behind it

5 of 6
Five of the six loosenings of UK mortgage rules since 2013 were followed by higher approvals inside three months. The exception, the 2021 guarantee scheme, opened into a stamp duty holiday. July 2025 held a quarter, then reversed.

We found six changes since 2013 that made borrowing easier. Each came from the UK government or a UK regulator and let buyers borrow with a smaller deposit or a bigger multiple of their income. For each change we compared mortgage approvals in the three months after it with the three months before. Changes that made borrowing harder are left out.